3000 kms of flying, 500 kms of driving and facing an earthquake prediction – that summed up my last week. I was off to a distant place from Delhi, but very close to my hometown. Sometimes you get opportunities to mix with official work with personal chores.
After flying 1500 km east to Guwahati, I was received by my mother at the airport. On our way home, she told me that a big earthquake has been predicted to occur the day after in Assam. An exact prediction of an earthquake seems esoteric. The prediction went a bit far giving time of the quake as 8:21 am on 8th Sept, 2006 with epicentre being some 16km of Dibrugarh city. The fact that there have been four tremors in last one month or so has made people take this warning seriously. It was taken so seriously that mock safety drills have conducted by local agencies and NGOs across the state. My mother has also kept a packet ready of handy things like torchlight, water bottle, a shawl, etc. that may be required in case of quake. Even most schools decided to remain closed on the day, the 8th of September. The prediction has been made on the basis of cosmic positions of some planets by a geologist named N Venkatanathan, sitting far away in Chennai. Some rebutted the claim as an earthquake can never be predicted so accurately. The ones who had abundant time to spend in leisure waited for the clock stuck 8:21, then 22, 23….finally 9, 10... But there was no sign of quake. Next day, people started crying for the head of the scientist and asked for his arrest for creating a panic situation. During all these I was somewhere on the highway as I had no such time to spare.
I drove to Jorhat next day, some 300km to the east of Guwahati. The night before I departed from Delhi, I had watched a programme in National Geographic channel on the 1991 cataclysmic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in Philippines. It was a stark realization of the horror the Mother Nature can unleash for all the pain we have given her. On my way I thought about the possible earthquake. Assam sits on an active seismic belt, but fortunately we are not sitting on a volcano. We are used to small tremors from time to time. But in the last 35 years I have been on this earth, there has been only one major quake in Assam. It was probably in 1987. The quake came in the morning at around 7am. We all ran out as the house started shaking. But outside the whole world was shaking, the trees, and the light poles. The shaking becomes more vigorous as time passed. I remember holding on to a tube well to prevent from falling down. It tremors lasted for about 20 secs. Later we came to know that the intensity was about 7 in the Richter scale. Fortunately, there was no major damage, though a few cracks here and there were reported. The traditional construction in Assam makes houses earthquake resistant. Some of the subsequent devastating earthquakes in other places of India were of lesser magnitude. The rest of the day was fun for us, as many aftershocks hit us and we kept running shouting the traditional Hari Bol, Hari Bol ( a way to call God to spare him).
The last major earthquake occurred in Assam in 1950. In fact according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) info page, this was the biggest earthquake in the world since the introduction of seismological monitoring stations. Forgive them for the spelling mistakes in names of places. The details of this quake is recorded as : 1950 Aug. 15, India, Assam, 1,530 deaths, magnitude 8.7. It had a devastating effect on the entire North East which changed many landscapes. The scientist who made the prediction this time claimed that on 8th Sept, 2006 the planetary positions would be same as that of the day in 1950. But mother nature proved that her actions can not be entirely predicted. But the fall out of the prediction is that, many people are now aware of the measures to be undertaken during a quake. The preparedness is good as if not today, some day a quake will hit us. The region is lying dormant for last 20 years. Mt. Pinatubo had no history of eruption in the previous 500 years before it erupted like a sleeping demon in 1991.